25年增长目标5% 稳中求进-宏观经济专题报告

Economic Growth and Employment - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, aligning with market expectations[3] - The employment target is to create over 12 million new urban jobs, with an urban unemployment rate around 5.5%[3] - In 2024, 12.56 million new urban jobs were created, with an average urban unemployment rate of 5.1%[3] Consumer Prices and Inflation - The consumer price index (CPI) growth target is set at 2%, down from 3% in 2024[7] - In 2023 and 2024, China's CPI experienced a year-on-year growth of 0.2%[7] - The GDP deflator index has been negative for several consecutive quarters, indicating a need for price level recovery[7] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is proposed at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year[8] - The total fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year[8] - General public budget expenditure is set at 29.7 trillion yuan, up by 1.2 trillion yuan[8] Monetary Policy - The report emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[4] - The issuance of special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan to support consumption and investment[5] - The overall monetary policy remains expansive, aiming to lower social financing costs[10] External Economic Strategy - The report stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic economic cycle amid external uncertainties[11] - It highlights the need for structural reforms and the development of new industries to drive long-term economic growth[12] - The government aims to enhance consumer income and promote consumption through various measures[11]