宏观：稳中求进(两会简评)

Economic Goals and Policy Adjustments - The economic target for this year is set at 5.0%, which is crucial under external tariff pressures[1] - The deficit ratio has been raised to 4.0%, indicating a need for increased policy support to meet the economic target[1] - Special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion and 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special bonds are planned, with 500 billion allocated to supplement bank capital[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The issuance of local special bonds is expected to be 3.6 trillion, lower than last year's 3.9 trillion, reflecting a central government expansion and local government contraction in leverage[3] - The focus for the upcoming quarters will be on the pace of policy implementation, with a pattern of strong Q1 performance followed by a slowdown in Q2 and acceleration in Q4 observed over the past two years[2] - The inflation target has been adjusted down to 2.0%, aligning more closely with realistic expectations rather than aiming for aggressive increases[1] Supply-Side Dependence - The upward trend in domestic commodities is primarily reliant on supply-side factors, which have received policy confirmation[1] - The core of the policy analysis indicates a continued focus on high-quality development through 2025, with the current measures reflecting last year's political meeting's spirit[3] - Without comprehensive leverage increases, domestic demand may not significantly drive prices, maintaining a supply-side logic path[3]