中国宏观：2025年政府工作报告解读-财政加力、科技引领

Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of approximately 4%, up from 3% in the previous year[2] - The fiscal deficit scale is projected to reach CNY 5.66 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.6 trillion compared to last year[2] - New local government special bonds are expected to total CNY 4.4 trillion, increasing by CNY 500 billion from the previous year[2] Monetary Policy and Market Stability - Monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone, with potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to be implemented in the second half of 2025[4] - The total new government debt for 2025 is projected to be CNY 11.86 trillion, an increase of CNY 2.9 trillion from last year, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy[5] Investment and Consumption - The central budget investment is set to increase to CNY 735 billion, focusing on strategic national projects and public welfare[8] - Measures to stimulate consumption include a CNY 300 billion special bond to support the replacement of old consumer goods, which has shown positive effects in 2024[8] Real Estate and Capital Markets - The report indicates signs of recovery in the real estate market, with an increasing proportion of cities showing positive month-on-month price changes[8] - The government emphasizes the importance of a stable capital market, aiming to deepen reforms and attract long-term funds[9] Technological and Industrial Policy - The government aims to enhance the digital economy and support the application of artificial intelligence across various sectors[12] - Future industry cultivation will focus on disruptive innovation areas such as biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G[12]