消费行业2025政府工作报告解读：以旧换新托底，新质消费开辟增量

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the prioritization of domestic demand expansion in the 2025 government work report, highlighting multiple measures to boost consumer confidence and spending capacity, with a target inflation rate of around 2% for consumer prices throughout the year [1][3][10] - The "trade-in" policy is reinforced with a special long-term government bond allocation of 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods, doubling the amount from the previous year [1][3][7] - Various supporting measures aim to enhance consumer willingness and capacity, including employment stabilization, income growth for low- and middle-income groups, and improved labor rights protections [1][3][5] Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from the domestic demand expansion, particularly in food and beverage, with potential gains for raw milk suppliers and dairy leaders, as well as high-demand sectors like outdoor products and trendy toys [2][4] - The report suggests that if demand recovers as anticipated, sectors such as dining, sportswear, and evolving retail chains will exhibit resilience [2][4] - The export chain is under observation due to the reshaping of global trade dynamics, with a focus on the long-term potential of overseas markets and the importance of product value and pricing power [2][4][6] New Consumption Trends - The government work report places significant emphasis on promoting new consumption forms, including sportswear and outdoor products, by enhancing leisure time and sports infrastructure [5][9] - Policies aimed at increasing participation in sports and outdoor activities are expected to drive demand for related products, with local brands gaining competitive ground against international counterparts [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure development in facilitating the export of light industrial products, with a focus on quality control and efficiency [6][7] Trade-in Policy Details - The trade-in policy for consumer goods in 2025 is set at 300 billion yuan, with an expanded category of supported products from 8 to 12, including home appliances and digital devices [7][12] - Specific subsidies are introduced for mobile devices priced under 6,000 yuan, with a 15% subsidy on the purchase price, alongside increased support for home renovation products [7][12] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home appliance sector, with expected improvements in domestic sales profitability and continued expansion into emerging markets despite trade risks [7][12]