百济神州：首次覆盖：从实验室迈向全球化，中国Biopharma龙头正在破茧成蝶-20250307

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for BeiGene [2]. Core Insights - BeiGene is positioned as a leading biopharma company in China, focusing on innovative drug development and global commercialization, with a strong pipeline and significant growth potential [3][11]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by the strong performance of its core products, particularly the BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, and the PD-1 inhibitor, Tislelizumab [4][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Product Globalization - BeiGene has established a robust global presence with over 60 clinical projects and 17 commercialized products, including Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab, which have been launched in multiple regions [3][11]. - The company aims to become the first biopharma in China to achieve recurring profitability by 2025, supported by its innovative product pipeline and global commercialization capabilities [11][20]. 2. Leadership in Hematology - The combination of BTK inhibitors, BCL-2 inhibitors, and BTK CDAC is expected to solidify BeiGene's leadership in hematological malignancies [5][27]. - Zanubrutinib is projected to double its revenue to $2.6 billion in 2024, further strengthening its market position in the U.S. hematology market [4][20]. 3. Pipeline Development - BeiGene's pipeline focuses on hematological and solid tumors, with several molecules showing best-in-class potential, including Sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 [27]. - The company has a rich pipeline with over 10 early-stage projects expected to report proof-of-concept data in 2025, enhancing its growth prospects [6][27]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are$5 billion, $6 billion, and$6.7 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 21% [7]. - The target price is set at HK$182.35, based on a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 4% [7].