洽洽食品：成本上行盈利承压，关注新品新渠道拓展-20250307

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (previously "Buy") due to external demand pressure and a downward revision of profit forecasts [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 71.31 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit of 8.52 billion yuan, up 6.19% year-on-year. However, the Q4 performance was below market expectations, with a revenue of 23.74 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth and a net profit decline of 23.8% [9]. - The company is focusing on new product development and channel expansion to drive growth, particularly in the sunflower seed and nut segments, despite facing raw material cost pressures [9]. - The company anticipates a stable performance in the upcoming year, with new products like potato chips and peanuts expected to contribute positively to sales [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 68.06 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth to 73.92 billion yuan in 2025 [8]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 8.03 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 8.52 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.55 billion yuan in 2025 [8]. - The gross margin is expected to decline due to rising raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds, impacting profitability [9].