25年“两会”消费相关政策点评：消费政策加码，拉动内需可期

Group 1: Consumption Policy Insights - The 2025 government work report emphasizes "boosting consumption" as a key task, focusing on "upgrading consumption to lead industrial upgrades" with specific policies aimed at enhancing consumption capacity, increasing quality supply, and improving the consumption environment[2] - In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 48.79 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year, indicating marginal improvement but still below pre-2019 growth levels[7] - Consumer confidence index in December 2024 was 86.4, reflecting a significant gap in overall consumption willingness compared to pre-2019 levels[7] Group 2: Traditional and New Consumption Areas - Traditional consumption sectors will see continued policy support, including 300 billion yuan in special bonds for consumption upgrades and measures to enhance income for low- and middle-income groups[14] - New consumption areas are emerging, with a focus on offline retail channels and the integration of AI technologies into consumer experiences, such as smart education and retail[16] - The performance of traditional optional consumption sectors like clothing and cosmetics showed declines, with growth rates of 0.3%, -1.1%, and -3.1% for various categories, indicating a need for more targeted stimulus policies[11] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of macroeconomic development, ineffective policy implementation, and slower-than-expected recovery in consumption growth[17]