宏观策略2025年政府工作报告解读：脉冲式慢牛有望延续

Macroeconomic Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 5.0%, consistent with the previous year, emphasizing the need for consumption to play a significant role in achieving this target[8] - The CPI target has been adjusted down to around 2.0%, indicating a shift towards stabilizing prices and addressing inflation and demand gaps as key economic tasks for 2025[13] - The broad deficit scale has increased, with a broad deficit rate of 8.4%, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at five key areas[14] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction likely in mid-2025[16] Consumption and Investment - The importance of boosting consumption has been elevated, with expectations for retail sales growth to exceed 6.0% in 2025, driven by diverse consumption policies and support for new consumption formats[22] - Effective investment expansion is prioritized, with fixed asset investment projected to grow by approximately 5.5%, including a 7.0% increase in infrastructure investment[23] - The government plans to utilize various investment tools and enhance fiscal-financial cooperation to ensure funding for ongoing projects[23] Capital Market and Industry Focus - Capital market reforms are expected to drive long-term healthy development, with a focus on attracting medium- and long-term funds into the market[24] - Emerging and future industries such as artificial intelligence, 6G communication, and bio-manufacturing are highlighted as key areas for growth and innovation[26] - The report emphasizes the need to address external challenges, with a robust policy toolkit prepared to respond to geopolitical and trade tensions[28] Market Outlook - The "pulse-style slow bull" market is anticipated to continue, supported by domestic economic improvements and periodic external shocks[31] - Historical analysis indicates that the current market environment is conducive to a sustained upward trend, with a gradual recovery in valuations observed since early 2024[39]