中国银河：每日晨报-20250307

Macro - The fiscal policy for 2025 aims for a deficit rate of 4%, signaling a proactive fiscal stance, with a nominal GDP target of approximately 141.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of about 4.9% [2][3][10] - The overall revenue growth target for 2025 is set at around 3.6%, which is higher than the actual growth of -3.4% in the previous year, indicating a shift towards positive growth in key tax categories [10][11] Electronics - The electronics sector is currently over-allocated, with active public funds holding 9.63% of their stock investment value in this industry, driven by factors such as the Deepseek model and increased capital expenditure from leading cloud companies [16][17] - The electronics index has risen by 8.19% as of February, with dynamic PE at the 94.71 percentile over the past decade, indicating strong market performance [17] - The domestic semiconductor industry is making significant progress, with wafer foundries expanding capacity and high-end passive components seeing accelerated localization [17] Computer - The government work report elevates "Artificial Intelligence+" to a national strategy, promoting the large-scale application of AI and the integration of digital technology with the real economy, which is expected to drive growth in the computer industry [19][20] - The report emphasizes the need for new infrastructure and intelligent terminal innovation, forecasting a substantial demand for computing power and data infrastructure [20][21] Pharmaceuticals - The 2025 government work report focuses on innovation in pharmaceuticals, including the establishment of an innovative drug directory and support for the development of innovative drugs [24][25] - The report indicates an increase in financial support for medical insurance, with per capita subsidies expected to reach 700 yuan per year, which will enhance the payment capacity for innovative drugs [26] - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to recover, with structural opportunities arising from the support for commercial insurance and the recovery of medical consumption [28] Environmental - The 2025 government work report maintains a strong commitment to green transformation, with a focus on developing clean energy and low-carbon traditional energy [30][31] - The report highlights the expected growth in offshore wind power installations, with projections of 10-15 million kilowatts of new capacity in 2025 [31][32] - The demand for green electricity is expected to increase significantly, driven by improved consumption and pricing conditions in the renewable energy sector [33][34] Home Appliances - The government is prioritizing consumer spending, with significant subsidies allocated for appliance upgrades and replacements, particularly in the home appliance sector [37][38] - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from a seamless transition of subsidy policies into 2025, enhancing domestic demand [38][39] - Globalization presents a significant opportunity for the home appliance industry, with companies expanding their production capabilities internationally [39][40] Communication - The government work report emphasizes the establishment of a growth mechanism for future industries, including biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G, indicating a commitment to scaling these sectors [43][44] - The report outlines plans for expanding 5G applications and optimizing national computing resource layouts, which are expected to foster the development of a competitive digital industry cluster [43]