中国光伏产业发展路线图（2024-2025）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the photovoltaic industry Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry in China is recognized as a strategic emerging industry with significant international competitive advantages and is expected to lead in high-quality development [10][17] - The report outlines a roadmap for the development of the photovoltaic industry from 2024 to 2025, emphasizing the need for continuous technological advancement and market adaptation [9][11] - The industry is projected to see substantial growth in production capacities across various segments, including polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules [24][26][30][31] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has rapidly developed in China, becoming a key driver for energy transformation and ecological civilization [10][17] - The roadmap aims to guide the healthy development of the industry by providing insights into technology, market trends, and production capacities [11][18] Key Indicators of the Industry Chain Polysilicon Segment - In 2024, the national polysilicon production is expected to reach 1.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [24] - The average comprehensive electricity consumption for polysilicon production is projected to decrease to 54.5 kWh/kg-Si in 2024, down 4.4% from 2023 [41] - The average water consumption for polysilicon production is expected to be 60.0 kg/kg-Si in 2024, a reduction of 25% [44] Silicon Wafer Segment - The silicon wafer production is anticipated to reach approximately 753 GW in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [26] - The average electricity consumption for pulling silicon rods is expected to decrease to 22.3 kWh/kg-Si in 2024 [60] Solar Cell Segment - The production of solar cells is projected to be around 654 GW in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [30] - The average conversion efficiency for n-type TOPCon solar cells is expected to reach 25.4% in 2024 [35] Module Segment - The crystalline silicon module production is expected to reach 588 GW in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [31] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in improving module efficiency and reducing costs [10][11] Market Dynamics - In 2024, the newly installed solar capacity in China is projected to be 277.57 GW, with a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 880 GW, making it the largest globally [33] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous innovation and adaptation to market demands to maintain competitive advantages [9][11]