股债演绎，昔日重现？

Group 1: Economic Context - The policy shift in September 2024 marks the beginning of a reversal for Chinese assets, alleviating concerns about the real estate downturn and boosting market risk appetite, leading to a significant rise in equity assets within a week[2] - By the end of 2024, China's real estate inventory exceeded 750 million square meters, surpassing the 2016 peak, indicating a persistent over-supply issue[3] - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation, similar to the period from 2014 to 2016, which poses risks of deflation and affects the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies[15] Group 2: Policy Measures - A new round of debt replacement initiated in October 2024 aims to address local government debt risks, with a total plan of approximately 12 trillion yuan, comparable in scale to the first round of debt replacement from 2015 to 2018[3] - The 2025 fiscal policy focuses on risk mitigation and supply-demand balance rather than aggressive stimulus, with a shift in spending from infrastructure to social welfare and human capital[40] Group 3: Market Predictions - The stock market is expected to experience a structural bull market driven by technology and consumption, while the bond market may face adjustments due to tightening liquidity and reduced interest rate expectations[9] - The short-term USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to fluctuate around 7.3, with potential pressures from rising tariffs, but overall trade friction impacts on the yuan are expected to be less severe than in 2018[10] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The current economic reform represents a fundamental restructuring rather than a simple structural adjustment, indicating that future reforms will face significant challenges[34] - The real estate downturn is expected to last longer than the industrial overcapacity phase, with potential impacts on various sectors including enterprises, households, and government[45] - Global economic conditions are fragile, with a lack of strong growth momentum in developed economies, which may pose additional external shocks to China[65]