宏观月报–2025年2月：中国春节消费温和复苏，市场聚焦两会及关税进展

Economic Overview - US inflation data for January exceeded expectations, delaying the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with predictions of two cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025[5][6] - Concerns about a recession have led to a rapid decline in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield expected to fluctuate between 4.0% and 4.5% in March[5][8] Domestic Consumption and Recovery - Chinese New Year consumption showed a robust recovery, with tourism spending increasing by 5.9% in visitor numbers and 7.0% in total expenditure compared to the previous year[21] - Industrial production resumed quickly post-holiday, with significant recovery in secondhand home sales, which rose approximately 18.4% year-on-year in January[22] Policy Focus and Economic Growth - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to emphasize domestic demand, technological innovation, and industrial upgrades, maintaining a growth target of around 5% for 2025[21][23] - Fiscal spending is anticipated to accelerate, with a projected effective budget deficit rate increasing to 5.6% of GDP[23] Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - Continuous capital inflows into emerging markets, with over $10 billion net inflow into Chinese stocks and bonds in January, marking the first simultaneous inflow into both markets since August 2024[9] - Political risks between the US and China may still impact capital inflows, despite the positive economic outlook in China[9]