中国经济评论：2025政府工作报告–增长目标符合预期，政策聚焦扩大内需和新质生产力

Economic Growth and Targets - The 2025 growth target is set at approximately 5%, consistent with previous expectations and aligned with the long-term goal of doubling economic output by 2035[10][4] - The urban employment target is set at over 12 million new jobs, with an urban unemployment rate target of around 5.5%[10][16] - The inflation target has been slightly lowered to around 2%, down from 3% last year, reflecting a focus on price stability[11][10] Fiscal Policy - The budget deficit is set at 4% of GDP, marking a historic high, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, and total public budget expenditure of 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year[10][12] - Local government special bond issuance is increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan from last year, to support infrastructure and other projects[10][12] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, aimed at supporting consumption upgrades[10][12] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a projected 25 basis points RRR cut and a 10 basis points interest rate cut in Q2 2025[5][13] - The focus will be on maintaining liquidity and ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations[10][5] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The government emphasizes comprehensive measures to stimulate domestic demand, including consumption subsidies, enhancing employment, and improving social security[6][10] - Central budget investment is planned at 735 billion yuan, an increase of 35 billion yuan from last year, to support effective investment and consumption[14][10] Risk Prevention - Risk prevention remains a priority, particularly in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions, with measures to mitigate these risks being emphasized[13][10] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt effectively while promoting sustainable development[10][19]