全球市场策略：特朗普的国会演讲与关税加速：断言美国衰退为时尚早，但贸易摩擦升级与经济增长放缓的组合正在加大市场的不确定性

Investment Strategy - The report asserts that it is too early to declare a recession in the US, but the combination of escalating trade tensions and slowing economic growth is increasing market uncertainty [1][17] - The upcoming congressional address by President Trump is expected to outline key policy focuses for the next four years, potentially marking a new political watershed [1][2] Recent Tariff Escalation - In early March, the Trump administration significantly escalated tariff policies, including a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the total tariff rate on some products to 20% [12][21] - The administration's tariff policies are seen as a response to high trade deficits, particularly with China, and are aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing [8][11] Economic and Tariff Policy - The Trump administration is pursuing a "tariff for tax reduction" strategy, using increased import tariffs to fill budget deficits while continuing the large-scale tax cuts initiated in 2017 [11] - Economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI and retail sales data suggest a potential slowdown in the US economy, prompting the need for stronger trade protection measures [7][19] Political Considerations - Internal political pressure and considerations for the 2026 midterm elections are influencing the administration's trade policies, with a focus on solidifying support from trade protectionist lawmakers [9][13] - The administration's hardline stance on immigration and border control is also a significant aspect of its policy agenda, facing strong opposition from Democrats [11] Market Dynamics - Recent market sentiment has been negatively impacted by increased uncertainty surrounding trade policies and weak macroeconomic data, leading to concerns about potential stagflation in the US economy [14][19] - The VIX index, known as the fear index, has risen by 30% as of March 4, 2025, reflecting heightened market anxiety [19] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to closely monitor the Trump administration's trade policy updates and signals from China's National People's Congress to assess potential impacts on global markets [16][20] - The combination of escalating trade tensions and economic slowdown is likely to keep investor sentiment cautious, with risk assets facing downward pressure in the short term [17][20]