海外宏观周报（2025年第9期）：欧洲自主化与“特朗普交易”反转

Asset Performance - US 10Y Treasury yield at 4.32%, up 8.0 bp; 2Y yield unchanged at 3.99%[3] - German 10Y Treasury yield increased by 45.0 bp to 2.83%; 2Y yield up 23.0 bp to 2.23%[3] - S&P 500 index down 3.10% to 5770.20; Nasdaq down 3.45% to 18196.22[3] Economic Indicators - US trade deficit reached a record $156.8 billion in January, contributing to a potential GDP contraction of 2.4% in Q1 2025[11] - February non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.14%[20][22] - Eurozone Q4 GDP revised up to +1.2% YoY, with a slight increase in government spending contribution[30] Market Trends - US stock market continues to weaken, with Nasdaq down 10% since February 19; European markets reaching new highs[10] - Dollar index fell over 5% from around 110 to below 104, while Euro and Pound increased by over 4% and 3% respectively[10] - Increased expectations for three Fed rate cuts in 2025 due to economic slowdown[4] Inflation and Employment - February average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% YoY, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[25] - Eurozone February CPI at +2.4%, slightly above expectations, with core CPI at +2.6%[32] - US manufacturing PMI improved to 52.7, signaling a recovery in manufacturing orders[26]