通胀延续惯性-宏观经济专题报告

Inflation Trends - In February, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 0.4% decline, following a 0.5% increase in January[1] - The average CPI for January-February showed a slight decline of 0.1% compared to the same period last year, while December's CPI had a 0.1% increase[5] - Food prices fell by 1.3% year-on-year in January-February, compared to a 0.5% decline in December[5] Core CPI and PPI Analysis - The core CPI for January-February increased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly down from a 0.4% increase in December[5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in February dropped by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected 2.1% decline and an improvement from a 2.3% drop in the previous month[9] - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, contributing approximately 1.86 percentage points to the overall PPI decline[9] Price Movements and Policy Implications - February's PPI saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, following a 0.2% decline in January[10] - The government has set a CPI growth target of around 2% for 2025, down from 3% in 2024, indicating a shift in monetary policy focus[13] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity and aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price expectations[13]