美国2月非农就业点评：就业市场的特朗普效应初显

Employment Data - In February 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000, and the previous value was revised down from 143,000 to 125,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, compared to the expected and previous rate of 4.0%[2] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, down from the expected and previous 62.6%[2] Wage and Hours - The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings fell to 4.0%, below the expected 4.1%, with the previous value revised from 4.1% to 3.9%[2][4] - The month-on-month growth rate of average hourly earnings was stable at 0.3%, matching expectations[2][4] - Average weekly hours worked remained at 34.1, slightly below the expected 34.2[2][4] Sector Analysis - Government sector jobs increased by 11,000, a significant drop from the revised 44,000 in January, reflecting the impact of government layoffs[4] - Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs, while the financial sector added 21,000 jobs, and social assistance and services added 63,000 jobs[4] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[4] Market Implications - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for interest rate cuts slightly increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in May rising to 66.1% from 51.3%[5] - Despite the slowdown in non-farm payrolls, the data still showed resilience, alleviating some recession concerns in the market[5] - The Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. economy remains robust, suggesting no immediate urgency for rate cuts[5]