银行业：全国两会经济主题记者会解读-多维剖析经济主题记者会：银行量价险的突破点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its investment value due to positive macroeconomic policies and financial support measures [5][54]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy with an acceleration in government bond issuance, which is expected to benefit short-term bank credit. The total new government bond issuance for 2025 is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [6][8]. - Monetary policy is described as being broadly accommodative, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain liquidity. The report anticipates that the RRR cut may occur in the first half of the year [14][16]. - Financial support for technological innovation is expected to increase, with banks likely to enhance their participation in financing technology-driven enterprises. The report suggests that the scale of re-loans for technological innovation may expand from 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan [31][39]. - The report notes that personal consumption loans and loans related to livelihood sectors will receive fiscal interest subsidies, which could stimulate consumer demand and improve the quality of personal loans [40][41]. - The report indicates that the risk resolution in key sectors is progressing well, with a significant reduction in non-performing loans expected. It highlights that approximately 40% of financing platforms are anticipated to exit through market-oriented transformations by the end of 2024 [43][44]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The report outlines that the fiscal policy will be more aggressive, with new local government special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan and the issuance of long-term special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan [6][8]. - The total government bond issuance is expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong fiscal stance [7][8]. Monetary Policy - The report discusses a broad monetary policy that is supportive, with expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain liquidity [14][16]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be further innovated to support key sectors, including technology and consumption [15][16]. Technological Innovation - The report highlights the introduction of a "technology board" in the bond market to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds by financial institutions and tech companies [31][39]. - The re-loan policy for technological innovation is set to expand, potentially unlocking additional credit of 2.35 to 2.94 trillion yuan [31][39]. Consumer Loans - The report indicates that fiscal interest subsidies will be provided for personal consumption loans, which may lead to an improvement in household loan growth [40][41]. Risk Management - The report notes that the risk resolution in key sectors is effective, with a significant reduction in non-performing loans expected, particularly in the real estate sector [43][44].