2025年2月通胀数据点评：春节因素扰动CPI回落，推动价格合理回升任重道远

Inflation Data - In February 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, marking the first year-on-year decline since February 2024[2] - The core CPI also fell by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, the first negative year-on-year change since February 2021[3] - The CPI's performance is weak, influenced by the Spring Festival, with a significant seasonal drop in food prices contributing to the decline[3] PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - The PPI's decline is primarily due to slow recovery in domestic demand, despite a slight rebound in international commodity prices[10] - The expectation is that the PPI may turn positive year-on-year by the third quarter of 2025 if domestic demand recovers as anticipated[20] Economic Outlook - The government has set a 2025 inflation target of around 2%, down from 3%, reflecting a pragmatic assessment of the inflation situation[16] - The GDP deflator index has been negative for seven consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures[21] - Continuous policy support, particularly in fiscal measures, is deemed necessary to achieve reasonable price recovery[16] Consumer Behavior - The recovery of core CPI is contingent on improved consumer demand, with a marginal increase in consumer spending observed[18] - The supply of pork is expected to gradually recover, which may suppress pork prices and impact overall CPI negatively if prices remain weak[18] - The PPI-CPI gap is narrowing, suggesting a slow recovery in corporate profitability, which is expected to continue into the latter part of 2025[23]