后俄乌战争时代能化贸易格局探讨

Group 1: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its fourth year, with significant geopolitical shifts affecting global energy markets[2] - Russia's oil exports have been redirected primarily to Asia, with China and India collectively importing an average of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2023, while European imports plummeted from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2021 to less than 0.5 million barrels per day in 2023[10] - The price of Urals crude has remained at a discount of over $15 per barrel compared to Brent, while shipping costs from the Baltic to India have surged by over 400% since the conflict began[7] Group 2: Sanctions and Trade Dynamics - G7 sanctions have progressively escalated, including a price cap on Russian oil initially set at $60 per barrel, later adjusted to $70 per barrel, significantly disrupting traditional energy ties between Russia and Europe[6] - The sanctions have led to a structural shift in the global oil trade, with European refiners facing increased costs due to the need to source alternative crude, resulting in processing costs doubling[10] - The potential for a ceasefire raises questions about the sustainability of Europe's energy diversification and whether Russia can regain its market share in Europe[2] Group 3: Refining Industry Adjustments - European refineries have seen a shift in crude quality, with a higher proportion of light crude leading to a 3-5% decrease in yield, further squeezing profit margins[10] - The U.S. has increased its imports of medium and heavy crude from Venezuela to compensate for the loss of Russian supplies, indicating a potential shift in sourcing strategies[27] - If sanctions are lifted, the return of Russian oil to Europe may be constrained by existing infrastructure and market dynamics, limiting the recovery of pre-conflict import levels[31]