2月物价数据点评：春节错月拖累通胀 政策将加快落地

Inflation Data Summary - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 0.4% and previous value of 0.5%[11] - February PPI fell by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2.1% and previous value of 2.3%[11] Factors Influencing CPI and PPI - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by the high base effect from the previous year due to the Spring Festival timing, with an estimated negative impact of 1.2 percentage points from last year's price changes[11] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, February CPI would have increased by 0.1%[11] - Food prices showed weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, contributing approximately 0.54 percentage points to the CPI decrease[11] Government Policy and Economic Outlook - The government plans to prioritize expanding domestic demand as a key focus for the year, aiming for timely and effective policy implementation[11] - Future demand recovery is anticipated to lead to a moderate rebound in prices[11] PPI Insights - PPI's decline was attributed to seasonal factors, abundant coal supply, and fluctuations in international oil prices, with coal processing prices down by 24.7% year-on-year[17] - The construction sector's slow recovery, with only 64.6% of construction sites resuming work by late February, indicates ongoing challenges in demand[17] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation exceeding expectations, and geopolitical tensions affecting economic recovery[4]