Legend Biotech Corp ADR：Carvykti逐季放量能见度高，指引2Q26经营层面盈亏平衡，维持买入-20250313

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Legend Biotech (LEGN US), with a target price of $72.00, indicating a potential upside of 93.6% from the current price of$ 37.19 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve positive net profit in Q4 2024, reaching $26 million, aligning with previous expectations after accounting for a$ 111 million foreign exchange gain. Management indicates that the cash on hand of $1.1 billion is sufficient to support operations until Q2 2026, when the company anticipates reaching operational breakeven [2][6]. - The sales of Carvykti are projected to continue growing, with Q4 2024 sales increasing by 17% and 15% in the U.S. and internationally, respectively. The product has already treated over 5,000 patients, and the number of hospitals offering Carvykti treatment has increased to 104 [6][11]. - The report suggests that the current stock price does not fully reflect the long-term market potential of Carvykti, and the target price has been slightly adjusted downwards to$ 72 [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at $1.061 billion, with a slight increase from the previous forecast of$ 1.051 billion, representing a 0.9% change. For 2026, revenue is expected to rise to $1.48 billion, up 7.1% from the prior estimate of$ 1.382 billion [5][11]. - The gross profit for 2025 is forecasted at $676 million, with a gross margin of 63.8%. By 2026, gross profit is expected to increase to$ 951 million, maintaining a gross margin of 64.2% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be a loss of $55 million, improving to a profit of$ 131 million in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 14.29%, with a 52-week high of $68.01 and a low of$ 31.53 [5][10]. - The report highlights the importance of new production capacity and market penetration strategies, particularly in the 2L+ multiple myeloma market, which is expected to drive sales growth significantly [6][11].