2月美国CPI数据：为什么弱于预期的CPI并未导致美债收益率回落？

Inflation Data Summary - February CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, fell to 3.1%, below the anticipated 3.2%[2] - Month-on-month CPI growth accelerated to 0.22%, while core CPI increased to 0.23%, both exceeding expectations[2] Food and Energy Insights - Food prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%[4] - Energy prices experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.9% and a year-on-year drop of 3.2%[4] - The impact of avian influenza led to a significant increase in egg prices, rising 10.4% month-on-month and 58.8% year-on-year[4] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods showed a year-on-year deflation of 0.1%, with a month-on-month increase slowing from 0.3% to 0.2%[5] - Core services growth decreased to 3.82% year-on-year, down from 3.94%, with transportation services declining by 0.8% month-on-month[6] - The potential impact of tariffs could raise CPI by up to 0.5 percentage points if the overall tariff rate increases to around 15%[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Despite weaker-than-expected CPI data, U.S. Treasury yields did not decline, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.307%[2] - Market participants maintain expectations for three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, September, and December[2] - Concerns about fiscal spending cuts and the impact of tariffs on inflation persist, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook[2][16]