策略专题：2024年12月行业景气指数观察

Core Insights - The industry prosperity index is highly correlated with the year-on-year growth rate of industry operating profits during the reporting period, indicating that the index can effectively predict future profit growth [1][2] - In the second half of 2024, the prosperity indices for non-ferrous metals, securities, and banking are expected to rise, while those for oil and petrochemicals, steel, public utilities, and transportation are projected to decline [1][6] - As of December 2024, the prosperity indices for non-ferrous metals and banking are above the zero axis, while those for basic chemicals, electronics, and machinery are close to the zero axis, indicating relative prosperity [1][6] Industry Prosperity Index Application - The industry prosperity index is constructed using publicly available data to capture trends in industry operating profit before financial reports are released, addressing the "time lag" issue of financial reporting [2] - The index is based on monthly data and standardizes relevant factors, including price, output, and downstream demand, to optimize the composite index [2] Overall Industry Prosperity Index Situation - The constructed prosperity index exhibits cyclical fluctuations around the zero axis, typically ranging between -1.5 and +1.5, reflecting a macroeconomic backdrop of declining growth rates over the past 15 years [5] - A prosperity index above the zero axis suggests potential positive growth in operating profits, while a value below indicates a risk of decline [5] Key Industry Prosperity Index Interpretations - The electronic industry shows a positive trend with a prosperity index of -0.18 in December 2024, indicating recovery, supported by high fixed asset investment growth and strong sales [12][14] - The machinery industry maintains a relatively stable development with a prosperity index of -0.19, reflecting high growth rates in fixed asset investment and industrial added value [20][21] - The electric equipment industry has been in a low-level fluctuation phase, with a prosperity index of -0.73, indicating a decline in fixed asset investment and electricity consumption [26][28] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry has seen a recovery with a prosperity index of -0.63, as export values and production volumes show positive growth after previous declines [34][36]