野村东方国际：日本低利率下消费品股价估值复盘

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese stock market experienced significant valuation increases during three notable periods post the 1990s bubble burst, with PE ratios reaching as high as 159 times [2][4] - The analysis of the 1990s low-interest environment reveals a clear distinction between periods driven by fundamentals and those driven by valuation changes, particularly in the consumer sector [5][20] - The food and beverage sector showed relative stability despite a slight revenue decline, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards essential goods [8][25] Summary by Sections Historical Context - The report outlines the four phases of Japan's declining interest rates from the early 1990s to the late 1990s, highlighting the impact on various consumer sectors [6][7] - The initial phase saw a 40% drop in the market, while subsequent phases experienced varying degrees of recovery and decline across sectors [7][14] Sector Performance - In the 1994-1995 recovery period, all sub-sectors showed improvement, with retail profits soaring by 180% and significant revenue increases across various industries [13][17] - The food and beverage sector's revenue grew by 4% during the 1996-2000 period, but profits declined by 13%, reflecting a challenging environment [15][17] - The electrical equipment sector outperformed others, with a revenue increase of 5% and profit growth of 7% during the same period [17] Valuation Dynamics - The report emphasizes the shift from fundamental-driven performance in 1994-1995 to valuation-driven performance in 1996-2000, with significant declines in PE ratios across most consumer sectors [20][21] - Essential goods like food and beverages maintained stable valuations, contrasting sharply with the volatility seen in discretionary sectors [25] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes that during the economic recovery, discretionary spending surged, particularly in the wholesale and retail sectors, with substantial increases in both revenue and profit [24] - Essential sectors demonstrated resilience, with minimal fluctuations in valuations compared to more volatile discretionary sectors [25]