Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 0.70, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 0.57 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance, with a high probability of earnings recovery in 2025. This is supported by a low valuation and an increased dividend yield, which provides significant upside potential compared to downside risks [8]. - The revenue trend is anticipated to reverse starting in the second quarter of 2024, with management expecting a return to healthier inventory levels in the industry by April. The company aims for its 2025 revenue to remain stable year-on-year [8]. - There is potential for a slight improvement in operating profit margins in 2025 due to expected retail discount improvements and increased sales of new products. However, the growth of e-commerce may continue to impact channel structure [8]. - The company is likely to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2025, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10%, providing a safety net for the stock price [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 20,064 million - 2024: RMB 18,454 million - 2025: RMB 18,592 million - 2026: RMB 19,272 million - 2027: RMB 19,782 million - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 684 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 5.6x in 2024 to 4.0x in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 0.48 to HKD 0.69, with a current market capitalization of HKD 3,036 million [4][8]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 0.7 million, suggesting moderate liquidity in the stock [4].
宝胜国际：业绩边际改善的概率较高，股息率提升的确定性增强-20250314