Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company and lowers the target price to HKD 6.6, indicating a potential downside of 14% from the current price of HKD 7.7 [2][3][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has shown a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 11% in the second half of 2024, reversing a declining trend since 2022. However, the adjusted net profit margin has narrowed, failing to continue the previous expansion trend [2][7]. - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve low double-digit revenue growth, but the potential for profit margin improvement appears limited due to significant expense reductions in 2024 and forward-looking investments in elder care and AI projects [2][7]. - The integration with Ping An Group is anticipated to enhance business synergies, but the extent of additional business growth from this consolidation remains uncertain [2][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 4,674 million - 2024: RMB 4,808 million (up 2.9% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 5,480 million (up 14.0% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 6,253 million (up 14.1% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 7,211 million (up 15.3% YoY) [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching RMB 81 million, and is expected to grow to RMB 169 million in 2025 [3][8]. Market Position - The company's current market capitalization stands at HKD 16,686 million, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 51 million over the past three months [3][7]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 3.2 to HKD 9.6, indicating significant volatility [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for 2025E is projected at 2.9, decreasing to 2.2 by 2027E [3][8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 0.1, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0.2 by 2027 [8].
平安好医生：2H24收入同比增速恢复至双位数，集团并表后能带来多少额外协同效应仍有待观察-20250314