2025-03-16 02:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate market in Hangzhou [4][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the economic growth in Hangzhou, driven by the technology sector and a continuous net population increase, creates a favorable environment for real estate investment [3][4]. - It emphasizes that despite a weak overall market, structural opportunities exist, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities, with expectations of a supply-demand reversal and strong resilience [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Overview - Hangzhou's GDP is projected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, ranking 8th among major cities in China [3][13]. - The digital economy and cloud computing sectors contribute to 80% of the GDP, indicating a robust technological foundation for future growth [3][14]. - The city has seen a net population increase of 3.5 million from 2015 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.1% in the core four districts [3][29]. 2. Land Market - As of January 2025, Hangzhou's inventory is at a low of 8 months, the lowest among major cities, with core districts showing even shorter cycles of 3-5 months [3][40]. - Land transaction amounts have decreased for three consecutive years, with 2024 figures showing a 34% decline year-on-year, but the core districts' share of total transactions has increased from 40%-45% to 56% [3][50]. - The top three companies in land acquisition for 2024 are Binjiang Group (32%), Greentown China (18%), and Jianfa Real Estate (16%) [3][60]. 3. Sales Performance - The report notes a recovery in market sentiment, with second-hand home transactions surpassing new homes for the first time, accounting for 65% of total sales [3][6]. - The core four districts' share of new home sales has increased from 31% in 2020 to 49% in 2023, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][6]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and Jianfa Real Estate leading the market [3][6]. 4. Impact and Opportunities - The report anticipates that sectors such as residential development, intermediary services, and property management will benefit from the improving market conditions in Hangzhou [3][4]. - Key companies expected to benefit include Binjiang Group, Jianfa International, and Greentown China in residential development, and Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia in intermediary services [3][4]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on residential developers like Binjiang Group, Jianfa Shares, and Greentown China, as well as property management firms like Greentown Services and Nandu Property [4][5].