摩根士丹利：特斯拉投资者调查结果 -增长预期存疑

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc, with an industry view of "In-Line" [4][67]. Core Insights - The survey results indicate that 85% of respondents believe Elon Musk's political activities negatively impact Tesla's business fundamentals [6]. - A significant 59% of respondents expect Tesla's FY25 deliveries to decline year-over-year, contrasting sharply with previous bullish sentiments [6]. - Despite the negative outlook, investor sentiment is relatively mixed regarding Tesla's stock performance by year-end, with 45% expecting the stock to rise and 36% expecting it to fall [6]. Summary by Sections Investor Survey Results - The survey collected 245 responses, revealing that 40% of investors view Musk's political activities as insignificant, while 3% see them as positive [3][6]. - Expectations for Tesla's auto delivery growth in 2025 show that 38% anticipate a decline of 10% or less year-over-year, while only 4% expect growth of more than 10% [8]. Valuation - Tesla's current valuation stands at 19x FY30 PE and approximately 10x EV/EBITDA for FY30, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile [6]. - The price target for Tesla is set at $430, with the stock closing at $230.58 on March 11, 2025 [4][6]. Market Sentiment - The report highlights a stark contrast in sentiment compared to earlier bullish outlooks, with a notable shift in expectations regarding Tesla's growth trajectory [6]. - The survey results suggest a cautious approach among investors, reflecting concerns over delivery forecasts and external factors impacting the company's performance [6].