【世说新能·周论】新能源策略周报

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a bearish outlook for industrial silicon, recommending short positions due to weak fundamentals and high inventory levels [2][11] - For polysilicon, a rebound is anticipated based on inventory depletion and upcoming demand from the "530" installation rush, suggesting a buy on dips strategy [2][11] - Nickel prices are expected to remain stable in a range of 127,000 to 137,000 CNY/ton, influenced by tight supply from Indonesia and seasonal demand fluctuations [2][9] - Lithium carbonate is projected to experience weak fluctuations, with a price range of 73,000 to 78,000 CNY/ton, driven by high production rates and subdued demand from battery manufacturers [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Strategy - Industrial silicon is recommended for short positions, with expected price movements between 43,700 and 45,000 CNY/ton [2][11] - Polysilicon is advised for buying on dips, with a focus on the upcoming demand surge due to installation projects [2][11] - The report notes that the market sentiment for industrial silicon is pessimistic, with significant short positions affecting price stability [11] Nickel Market Overview - Nickel prices are projected to stabilize due to tight supply conditions and seasonal demand, with a focus on the impact of Indonesian export policies [2][9] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global inventory levels and their potential impact on nickel pricing [2][9] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium market is characterized by high production rates and increasing inventory levels, with a focus on the impact of supply chain dynamics on pricing [13][14] - The report indicates that the demand for lithium from electric vehicle manufacturers is currently weak, affecting overall market sentiment [13][14] - A balanced approach to hedging is recommended, with suggestions to maintain a 50% sell and 50% buy strategy for risk management [13]