君研海外·特朗普2.0关税政策及反制措施全梳理——从贸易流和贸易结构看关税冲击

Group 1: Tariff Policies - Trump's 2.0 tariff policy includes a 25% universal tariff on steel and aluminum, a cumulative 20% tariff on imports from China, and 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico[1] - The weighted average tariff rate on Chinese goods is expected to rise to 37.3%, significantly impacting trade dynamics[3] - The current tariff measures are characterized by rapid implementation, broad scope, and high uncertainty, affecting global market sentiment[1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Under a scenario of 60% tariffs on China and 20% on global goods, China's exports to the U.S. are projected to decrease by 45.6%, leading to a 1.8% decline in China's GDP and a 0.5% decline in U.S. GDP[3] - The first round of China's countermeasures was relatively mild, but the second round significantly expanded the range of targeted U.S. goods, particularly in agriculture[3] - The U.S. is expected to face high costs from its own tariff policies, particularly if comprehensive tariffs are applied to the EU, potentially dragging down the Eurozone GDP by 1.5%[5] Group 3: Countermeasures - Canada has implemented a two-phase countermeasure strategy, with the first phase targeting CAD 30 billion of U.S. agricultural products and consumer goods, and the second phase involving CAD 125 billion of transportation and agricultural products[18] - The EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on approximately EUR 80 billion worth of U.S. goods, with additional measures expected to cover EUR 18 billion more[19] - China's countermeasures include tariffs of 10% to 15% on U.S. agricultural products, with a focus on key sectors like soybeans and pork[21]