瑞银：阿里巴巴路演要点-投资者正将关注点从核心商业转向阿里云业务

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Alibaba Group with a price target of US$176.00, up from a prior target of US$160.00 [5][10][31]. Core Insights - The management of Alibaba Group identifies capacity as a key constraint on growth, with a focus on monetizing AI capabilities primarily on the B2B side. The company is leveraging its QWen model for MaaS and has integrated LLM into various products [3][4]. - The report highlights strong growth potential in the cloud sector driven by digitalization in Chinese enterprises and SMEs, with expectations of margin improvements in the long term [3][10]. - The Taobao Tmall Group (TTG) is expected to benefit from a new software service fee and improved marketing tools, with a focus on user acquisition and enhancing customer experience [4][10]. Financial Metrics - Revenue projections show growth from Rmb941.17 billion in FY24 to Rmb970.25 billion in FY25, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb158.36 billion to Rmb160.42 billion in the same period [7]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS increase from Rmb62.23 in FY24 to Rmb67.18 in FY25, with a projected CAGR of 12% [7][10]. - The company's market capitalization is noted at US$331 billion, with a free float of 97% and an average daily trading volume of 3,609,000 shares [5][7]. Valuation and Returns - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, projecting a target price of US$176, reflecting an improved outlook for TTG and cloud growth potential [10][12]. - Forecasted returns include a price appreciation of 24.7% and a dividend yield of 1.2%, leading to an expected total stock return of 26.0% [12][10].