LI AUTO-理想汽车-W：理想汽车：加快海外市场布局，重申AI战略地位-20250317

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) [3][10] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][5] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is raised to HKD 132.0, also indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][6] Core Insights - Li Auto's growth momentum for 2025 is supported by the launch of new models and expansion of its sales network, with a solid foundation for total delivery growth [10] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth in the next two years [10] - Li Auto's strategic emphasis on AI investments is aimed at ensuring long-term competitive advantages [10] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 123,851 million - 2024: RMB 144,460 million (growth of 17%) - 2025E: RMB 176,440 million (growth of 22%) - 2026E: RMB 230,493 million (growth of 31%) - 2027E: RMB 259,382 million (growth of 13%) [4][11] - Gross margin is projected to be 22.2% in 2023, declining slightly to 20.9% by 2027 [4][11] - Net profit (loss) projections are as follows: - 2023: RMB 11,704 million - 2024: RMB 8,032 million (decline of 31%) - 2025E: RMB 8,724 million (growth of 9%) - 2026E: RMB 12,922 million (growth of 48%) - 2027E: RMB 17,543 million (growth of 36%) [4][11] Market Expectations - In Q4 2024, Li Auto's revenue reached RMB 44,274 million, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [12] - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.3% in Q4 2024, with a net profit of RMB 3,523 million, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 268,709 [12] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a target price of$ 32.2 for Li Auto (LI.US) based on a target P/E ratio of 26.7x for 2025 [10][18] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is set at HKD 132.0 [10][18]