互联网行业月报：促消费政策拉动多品类增速提升，预计1季度业绩利好持续

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that consumption policies are driving growth across multiple categories, with a continued positive impact on performance expected in Q1 2025 [1][2]. - E-commerce growth is projected to continue, with an estimated GMV growth of 5% for the industry in 2025, driven by expanded subsidy programs and recovery in demand for home appliances [2][12]. - Specific company forecasts include Alibaba's GMV growth of 4%, JD's at 7%, Pinduoduo's at 13%, Kuaishou's at 12%, Douyin's at 25%, and WeChat Video's at 26% for 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Valuation Overview - Alibaba (BABA US) rated "Buy" with a target price of 165.0, current price at 141.1, FY25E EPS of 86.3, and a PE ratio of 11.8 [1]. - Pinduoduo (PDD US) rated "Buy" with a target price of 144.0, current price at 122.5, FY25E EPS of 104.4, and a PE ratio of 8.5 [1]. - JD (JD US) rated "Buy" with a target price of 62.0, current price at 43.2, FY25E EPS of 35.1, and a PE ratio of 8.9 [1]. - Kuaishou (1024 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 54.0, current price at 64.9, FY25E EPS of 5.0, and a PE ratio of 12.1 [1]. - Meituan (3690 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 226.0, current price at 173.4, FY25E EPS of 9.0, and a PE ratio of 17.9 [1]. E-commerce Performance - The adjusted year-on-year growth rate for physical e-commerce retail sales in January-February 2025 is 5.0%, compared to 3.8% in December 2024 [2][5]. - The expansion of the trade-in subsidy program for mobile phones has led to a 26% increase in communication equipment sales, while home appliances continue to show double-digit growth at 11% [2][6]. - The report notes a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in January-February 2025, attributed to e-commerce activities during holidays and user demand [10][12]. Company Updates - Alibaba's Taotian is focusing on growth through six optimization directions, including new product incentives and enhanced merchant support [2]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce data shows a 25% year-on-year increase in active merchants and a significant rise in GMV across various categories [2]. - JD's food delivery service has expanded to 126 cities, with over 300,000 quality restaurant partnerships, enhancing user engagement and shopping frequency [2].