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1-2月经济数据点评:稳增长多管齐下,促消费恰逢其时
中银证券·2025-03-18 03:35

Economic Performance - In January-February 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.1%[4] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.8%[29] - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 4.5%[29] Sector Analysis - High-tech industries saw a significant growth in industrial added value, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1%[4] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.0% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 9.8%[21] - Service consumption grew by 4.9% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in food and beverage sectors during the Spring Festival[13] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure increased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in government spending[21] - Real estate investment showed signs of marginal improvement, with a reduction in the rate of decline compared to 2024[24] - The contribution of net exports to GDP was 30.3% in 2024, highlighting the importance of external demand[30] Risks and Outlook - Global inflation and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US pose significant risks to domestic growth[31] - The economic growth target for 2025 remains at 5%, requiring a multi-faceted approach to stabilize growth[30] - Anticipated monetary policy easing before May 2025 aims to mitigate the impact of external demand fluctuations[30]