化工行业周报：《提振消费专项行动方案》有望拉动相关产品需求增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" is expected to boost demand for related products, particularly in real estate, childcare, and daily consumer goods [1] - The refrigerant market is entering a demand peak, with prices for major refrigerants showing an upward trend due to supply concerns and increased domestic consumption [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. in the refrigerant sector, and Tongyi Zhong in the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) sector [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key Industry and Product Tracking - The "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" aims to enhance domestic demand across various sectors, including real estate-related products like refrigerants and coatings, childcare products like adhesive for diapers, and daily consumer goods such as textiles and food additives [1] 2. Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases, with R142b priced at 27,000 CNY/ton (up 2,000 CNY/ton), R22 at 35,750 CNY/ton (up 250 CNY/ton), and R134a at 45,500 CNY/ton (up 500 CNY/ton) [2][3] - The report highlights the positive outlook for major refrigerant varieties as demand peaks, suggesting investment in companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [3] 3. Polyurethane - MDI prices are declining due to weak downstream demand, with the average price for polymer MDI at 17,000 CNY/ton (down 750 CNY/ton) and pure MDI at 18,200 CNY/ton (down 400 CNY/ton) [14][15] 4. Agricultural Chemicals - Phosphate fertilizer prices are rising, with diammonium phosphate at 3,358 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY/ton) and monoammonium phosphate at 3,316 CNY/ton [20][21] - Glyphosate prices remain stable at 22,909 CNY/ton, with a decrease in profit margins [17] 5. Fluorochemicals - Prices and margins for R22 and R134a are increasing, driven by rising export orders and domestic consumption incentives [27] - The price of R22 is 35,750 CNY/ton, and R134a is 45,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a positive market trend [27]