2025年1-2月统计局房地产数据点评：销售延续止跌回稳趋势，新开工仍在低位运行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral/Maintain [1] Core Viewpoints - The sales of real estate continue to stabilize, with new construction remaining at low levels. The cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China for January-February 2025 was 10,746 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 5.1%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 7.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][13] - The cumulative sales amount for the same period was 1,025.9 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year, with a decline narrowing by 14.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][13] - The government has emphasized the need to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, leading to increased buyer confidence and a rise in new home transactions [4][7] Sales Summary - The sales area and amount for January-February 2025 showed a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline, with the eastern region experiencing the largest reduction in sales amount decline [19] - The cumulative sales area in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions were 4,539/2,795/3,115/297 million square meters, with year-on-year changes of -7.30%/-0.70%/-5.90%/-3.00% respectively [19] Price Summary - The price decline for new and second-hand homes has narrowed year-on-year, with the new home price index for 70 major cities showing a year-on-year decline of 5.2% in February [5][20] - The first-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 4.7% and 5.9% respectively [5][20] Development Investment Summary - Cumulative development investment for January-February 2025 was 1,072.0 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [6][27] - New construction area for the same period was 6,614 million square meters, down 29.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [6][28] - The completion area for January-February 2025 was 8,764 million square meters, down 15.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 12.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the market is showing signs of recovery, with increased buyer willingness and a narrowing of sales declines. It recommends paying attention to relevant local state-owned enterprises and developers [7][35]