中国宏观数据点评：1-2月实体经济数据均好于预期

Economic Overview - China's economic data for January-February exceeded expectations, reflecting the effectiveness of previous policy stimuli, but the recovery remains unstable[1] - The inflation and credit data released earlier this month were weaker than expected, indicating potential challenges ahead[1] Consumption and Retail - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4% year-on-year in January-February, up from 3.7% in December and surpassing the market expectation of 3.8%[2] - Restaurant consumption saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%, up 1.6 percentage points from December[2] - Sales of communication equipment surged to 26.2%, driven by the implementation of new subsidy policies for 3C digital products[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment rebounded significantly, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.2%[3] - Infrastructure investment growth accelerated, while real estate investment saw a reduced decline, although manufacturing investment continued to decline moderately[3] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year, a smaller decline than the previous year, but still below the market expectation of -8.5%[3] - New construction area saw a year-on-year decline of 29.6%, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[3] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in February, up 0.2 percentage points from January, which was worse than the expected 5.1%[7] External Economic Risks - The U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China in February and March, which may gradually impact China's exports, with a projected 6% reduction in exports if tariffs increase to 60%[10] - The overall economic growth for the first quarter is expected to slightly decline to around 5% compared to the previous quarter[9] Policy Outlook - Continued policy support is anticipated, focusing on the execution of fiscal stimulus and real estate support policies, as well as the introduction of national birth subsidies[1] - The government aims to stabilize economic growth around 5%, emphasizing domestic demand and technological innovation as key drivers for the year[12]