房地产行业2025年1-2月统计局数据点评：单月销售动能减弱，土地投资修复带动投资降幅收窄

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Views - The sales momentum in the real estate sector has weakened, with a notable decline in both sales area and investment amounts in January and February 2025. The sales area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, while the development investment amount fell by 9.8% [1][2]. - The average selling price of commercial housing has significantly dropped, with the average price in January and February 2025 at 9,547 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 7.5% from December 2024 [2][6]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery in market demand in March 2025, driven by increased supply from developers and a shift towards higher-end properties [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January and February 2025, the total sales area was 107 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year, with a sales amount of 1.03 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% [2][12]. - Residential sales area fell by 3.4%, and sales amount decreased by 0.4%, indicating a decline in market activity [2]. - The average selling price for residential properties was 9,949 yuan per square meter, reflecting an 8.1% drop from December 2024 [2][6]. Inventory Situation - The broad inventory of commercial housing reached 1.75 billion square meters by the end of February 2025, with a decrease of 1.2% from December 2024 but a year-on-year decline of 14.4% [5]. - The current housing inventory is at its highest level since August 2016, with a current inventory of approximately 432 million square meters [5]. Investment and Construction - Development investment in January and February 2025 was 1.07 trillion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with new construction area at 66.14 million square meters, a decline of 29.6% [5][8]. - The report notes that the decline in investment is primarily due to reduced land purchases and high inventory levels, with new construction expected to continue to decline [5]. Developer Financing - Funds available to real estate companies decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, totaling 1.56 trillion yuan in January and February 2025 [5][15]. - The report highlights a decline in sales receipts, with housing sales down 4.4% and personal mortgage loans down 11.7% [5][19]. 2025 Core Indicators Forecast - The report predicts a continued decline in new housing sales in 2025, with expected year-on-year decreases of 9% in sales area and 12% in sales amount [5]. - New construction and investment are also forecasted to decline, with new construction area expected to decrease by 16% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, those that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and companies benefiting from local government debt relief [5].