Nvidia(NVDA) 野村·2025-03-18 15:30Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies mentioned Core Insights - The Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology is expected to be a significant trend in the optical communication sector, potentially disrupting the existing value chain within the next 2-3 years [14][40] - The global switch market has shown robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1% in 2023, surpassing USD 40 billion, driven by the scaling of large language model training and data centers [20][21] - CPO shipments are projected to start with small volumes and dominate the 3.2T segment by 2028-2029, with penetration rates in the AI Data Center switch market expected to reach 2% in 2025, 22% in 2027, and 32% in 2030 [2][27] Summary by Sections CPO Technology and Market Outlook - NVIDIA is set to launch its first generation of CPO switch, Quantum 3400 X800, at the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) 2025, with mass production expected to begin in July 2025 [15][45] - Broadcom has introduced the Tomahawk 5 Bailly, a 51.2T Ethernet switch CPO product, which integrates advanced optical engines and is designed to operate at significantly lower power consumption [3][47] - The report estimates that CPO switch penetration in the AI Data Center switch market could reach 2% in 2025, 22% in 2027, and 32% in 2030, indicating a growing acceptance of this technology [27][28] Key Players and Developments - Major players in the CPO market include NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC, with each company making significant advancements in CPO technology [3][41] - Chinese companies such as Suzhou TFC and Accelink are also positioned to benefit from the CPO trend, focusing on optical component manufacturing [4][56] - The report highlights that the integration of optical and electronic components through CPO technology can lead to reduced costs and power consumption, enhancing overall system performance [36][38] AI Applications and Market Dynamics - OpenAI's ChatGPT continues to lead in global AI applications, with a daily active user count fluctuating between 60-63 million, while DeepSeek has emerged as a leading app in China's generative AI market with a DAU of 49 million [5][62] - The competitive landscape in AI applications is evolving, with new models like OpenAI's GPT-4.5 and Alibaba's QwQ-32B being introduced, showcasing advancements in performance and efficiency [10][79] - The report notes that the global AI market is experiencing sustained growth, particularly in China, driven by increasing user engagement and the introduction of innovative AI solutions [60][67]