中金-海外策略：中美的“两本账” -理解关税、AI与美元的新视角

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The interplay between tariffs, AI, and the dollar is crucial for understanding the economic dynamics between China and the US, with AI trends attracting capital inflows and tariffs impacting trade balances [2][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in sustaining financial account inflows for the US, while China's economic model relies on a surplus in the current account but faces capital outflows [10][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: US Economic Dynamics - The US has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, with AI trends significantly attracting capital inflows and supporting the dollar [2][3] - Historical data shows that the US current account deficit peaked at -6.3% of GDP in Q3 2006, while financial account surplus reached 7.2% of GDP [2] - The report highlights that the AI narrative has become a key driver of capital inflows since 2023, creating a positive feedback loop for the US economy [10][11] Section 2: China Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO in 2001, but has faced increasing financial account deficits due to capital outflows [6][39] - The report notes that despite a surplus in the current account, the lack of effective capital inflows has hindered the transformation of foreign exchange reserves into domestic currency [41][15] - The need for China to stimulate domestic demand and attract capital inflows is emphasized, especially in light of external pressures from tariffs and global economic conditions [11][12] Section 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that 2026 will be a critical year for both AI trends and tariff policies, with potential implications for capital flows and economic stability in both the US and China [12][10] - The ability of the US to continue attracting capital will largely depend on the sustainability of its AI advantage, while China must focus on structural reforms to enhance its economic resilience [11][12]