融达期货宏观日报0319

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. White House announced a call between President Trump and President Putin discussing the necessity of peace and ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the need for improved U.S.-Russia relations[2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that a "tariff code" for trade restrictions will take effect on April 2, affecting 15% of countries, and asserted that the U.S. economy is "healthy" with no signs of recession[2] Group 2: Commodity Market Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.58, down 1.33% for the day and down 22.07% year-on-year[3] - LME copper rose to $9,902.00, increasing by 0.38% daily and 9.89% year-on-year[3] - COMEX gold reached $3,041.70, up 1.05% daily and 32.19% year-on-year[3] - SHFE rebar closed at $3,191.00, down 0.81% daily and down 7.85% year-on-year[3] Group 3: Stock Market Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,429.76, up 0.11% daily and 11.54% year-on-year[3] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.46% to 24,740.57, with a year-on-year growth of 46.12%[3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 41,581.31, down 0.62% daily and 6.16% year-on-year[3] Group 4: Bond Market and Interest Rates - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield was at 1.89%, up 0.22% daily but down 17.66% year-on-year[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.29%, down 0.02% daily and down 0.07% year-on-year[3] - The current probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is 98.0% for the 425-450 basis points range[3]