宏观策略研究海外宏观周报（2025年第6期）：通胀和关税忧虑增加，美元却回调了-20250319

Key Points - The report highlights increasing inflation concerns in the US, with January CPI rising 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% [4][19] - The US PPI also surpassed market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, with a January PPI increase of 3.5% year-on-year [21] - The report notes that recent US economic data, including a decline in retail sales and industrial production, suggests a mixed economic outlook [24] - Trump's proposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and potentially automobiles are expected to further elevate inflation risks, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of 0.5% to over 1% in inflation [11][12] - European economic indicators show a slight recovery, with the UK GDP growing 1.4% year-on-year in Q4, while the Eurozone GDP was slightly revised up to 0.1% [27][28] - Japan's economic outlook is under pressure, with a decrease in the current account surplus, indicating potential challenges ahead [31][34]