化工及新能源材料行业周报：纯MDI、TDI价格由涨转跌，需求不及预期-2025-03-05

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][22]. Core Insights - The prices of pure MDI and TDI have shifted from rising to falling due to demand not meeting expectations. MDI is currently facing a 41.5% tariff due to an anti-dumping investigation in the US, but the impact on the company's performance is expected to be limited as they adjust channels through Hungarian production [3][13]. - Potash prices continue to rise, with domestic upstream operating rates low and downstream demand expected to increase. The international market is experiencing supply tightness due to the closure of three mines by Uralkali, which will reduce output by at least 300,000 tons in the second quarter [3][12]. - The chemical industry is currently at a low point in terms of market conditions, but leading companies with absolute cost advantages are expected to perform well in the long term. The semiconductor industry is anticipated to recover gradually in 2024, benefiting from national policy support and significant room for import substitution [3][14]. Industry Performance Statistics and Analysis - From February 17 to February 21, 2025, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index rose by 1.19%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.97%. The best-performing sectors included membrane materials, other rubber products, and carbon black, while the worst-performing sectors were phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, and soda ash [3][9]. - The price of TDI decreased by 12.82% to 12,925 RMB/ton due to low downstream demand and limited order quantities, leading to a significant drop in market prices [3][12]. - The price of pure MDI fell by 2.05% to 19,100 RMB/ton, with market activity subdued as downstream demand failed to meet expectations [3][13]. Data Tracking and Analysis - The price of potassium chloride is currently 2,954 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.61% and a monthly increase of 14.58% [3][12]. - The price of titanium dioxide has risen to 14,546 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43% driven by cost pressures and the upcoming demand peak [3][11]. - The report highlights that the overall performance of chemical products has been active since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to cost-driven factors and supply-demand mismatches [3][13].