环球市场脉搏（2025年2月）：市场焦点：关税的激荡与未决

Market Focus - The latest round of US tariffs has transcended traditional trade disputes, intertwining with geopolitical competition, industrial protectionism, and immigration policies, leading to increased global supply chain instability and market volatility [1] - Tariff policy uncertainty, such as sudden adjustments to "de minimis" policies, raises compliance costs for businesses and disrupts long-term commercial planning [1] - The impact of tariffs extends beyond the US-China trade conflict, affecting long-term allies like Canada, Japan, and Europe, prompting countries to reassess economic relationships and potentially leading to long-term changes in global trade patterns [1] Responses from Affected Countries - China has opted for a restrained response to leave room for future negotiations and may initiate high-level talks in the coming months [2] - Canada and Mexico successfully postponed the implementation of tariffs, with upcoming negotiations in March being crucial [2] - Europe has not been directly affected yet, but potential US tariffs on auto exports and the economic pressures in Germany and France complicate a unified response [2] - Japan is increasing investments in the US to mitigate trade frictions, although uncertainty regarding auto tariffs remains a core concern [2] Industry Impact - The new tariffs have profound effects on several key industries: - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors and artificial intelligence, faces risks of further supply chain fragmentation [2] - The automotive industry, especially manufacturers in Japan and Europe, is dealing with rising costs and supply chain disruptions [2] - The retail and e-commerce sectors are adjusting business models due to changes in tax exemptions for low-priced goods [2] - Tariffs on steel and aluminum are increasing production costs for aerospace, infrastructure, and machinery manufacturing [2] Market Reactions - The US stock market is challenged by dual pressures of economic slowdown and tariff uncertainties [2] - The Chinese market benefits from strong domestic demand and breakthroughs in the AI sector, showing resilience [2] - The European market remains relatively stable due to stable monetary policies and delayed tariff impacts [2] Fixed Income Market - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4.3% and 4.6%, with trade policy changes and economic data being key factors influencing market expectations [3] - In the fixed income market, yields have diverged, with most economies, including the US, seeing declines, while yields in China, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland have increased [4] Commodity Performance - Commodities have performed strongly, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and central bank demand, with precious metals prices significantly rising (gold up 7.0% and silver up 5.4%) [12] - The Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets have outperformed global assets, with notable increases in indices such as the S&P/NY Mellon China ADR Index (+26.8%) and the Hang Seng Technology Index (+19.7%) [12] Market Sentiment - Overall market sentiment has shifted to neutral with a slight bearish inclination, as indicated by the "dumb money" and "smart money" indices being at neutral levels [13] - The put-call ratio for US stocks is approximately 0.63, suggesting a gradual return to neutral market sentiment [13] Economic Observations - The observation checklist for the US economy remains largely unchanged, with 8 indicators positive, 13 neutral, and 4 negative [14] - Positive changes are primarily driven by improvements in manufacturing and the ongoing repair of the yield curve inversion [14]