港股熊牛切换走向深化：新质生产力助力打开港股长期上升空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for major companies in the Hong Kong market, including Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Baidu, SMIC, ZTE, Lenovo, AAC, BYD Electronics, and Sunny Optical [5][14]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 25.6% and the Hang Seng Tech Index soaring by 37.5% since January 13, 2025, driven by the DeepSeek theme [1][7]. - The current market rally is characterized by a structural shift, with the technology sector leading the gains while traditional sectors lag behind [1][19]. - The report raises the target price for the Hang Seng Index to 25,000 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index to 6,300 points, indicating a long-term upward potential for the market [3][12]. Market Dynamics - The rally is primarily driven by trading-oriented funds, with significant profit-taking pressure expected as the market enters overbought territory [2][8]. - International long-only funds are reassessing the investment value of the Chinese market, potentially shifting their view from "tradable" to "investable" [9][52]. - The upcoming "Two Sessions" in March may not meet high expectations for substantial stimulus, leading to a focus on deeper reform policies instead [3][41]. Sector Performance - The technology sector has shown strong performance, with 57% of the Hang Seng Tech Index constituents reaching new highs, compared to 31% of the Hang Seng Index constituents [19][20]. - The report highlights the importance of new quality productive forces and AI-driven innovations as key drivers for the technology sector's growth [53][44]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific companies as preferred picks under the DeepSeek theme, including Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Baidu, SMIC, ZTE, Lenovo, AAC, BYD Electronics, and Sunny Optical, all rated as "Outperform" [5][14]. - The potential for a resurgence in the IPO market is noted, with expectations for increased liquidity and capital inflow into the Hong Kong market [49][50].