财政总盘子测算

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The analysis emphasizes that understanding China's fiscal strength requires looking beyond just the deficit ratio, as it involves both budgetary and non-budgetary revenues [3] - The total fiscal volume in China is expected to improve marginally in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by an increase in budgetary income and a slight recovery in non-budgetary financing [3][22] - The report highlights that the contraction of the fiscal volume in 2024 contributed to weak domestic demand and a pricing logic of "asset scarcity" [3] Summary by Sections Fiscal Overview - The report notes that since 2018, public budget revenue growth has experienced cyclical fluctuations, with significant impacts from the pandemic and tax reduction policies [5] - Non-tax revenues have shown high growth when tax revenues face pressure, serving as a counterbalance [6] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenues have been in decline since 2022, dropping from a peak of 9.8 trillion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 6.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with land transfer revenues falling from 8.7 trillion yuan to 4.9 trillion yuan [7] Budgetary Financing - The report indicates a trend of increasing government budgetary financing, with a notable decline in municipal investment financing expected in 2024 [10][18] - The net increase in municipal investment debt is projected to drop significantly from approximately 6.8 trillion yuan in 2023 to about 3.1 trillion yuan in 2024 [11] 2025 Fiscal Projections - For 2025, the report forecasts a 4.3% growth in general public budget revenue, reaching approximately 22 trillion yuan, with tax revenue growth expected to align with nominal GDP growth [22] - Government fund revenue is anticipated to decline further to about 5.5 trillion yuan, with land transfer income projected to decrease by 16% to 4.1 trillion yuan [24] - The report predicts an increase in budgetary financing, with the deficit rate expected to rise to 4%, leading to a projected deficit of 5.7 trillion yuan [26] Sensitivity Analysis - The report provides optimistic and conservative scenarios for fiscal projections, indicating potential adjustments in non-tax revenues and land transfer income that could significantly impact overall fiscal spending in 2025 [35][36]