宏观月报：2025年2月：中国春节消费温和复苏，市场聚焦两会及关税进展-2025-03-09

Investment Rating - The report maintains a growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a stable outlook for the industry [21][24]. Core Insights - The report highlights a modest recovery in consumer spending during the Chinese New Year, with significant growth in cultural and tourism consumption, while noting divergence in sub-sector performance [5][21]. - The focus is on the upcoming Two Sessions, where key themes will likely include domestic demand, innovation, industrial upgrades, and risk prevention, all requiring continued policy support [4][21]. - The report anticipates sustained capital inflows into emerging markets, particularly China, driven by a weaker US economy and supportive pro-growth policies [9][21]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The US inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with projections of two cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025 [5][7]. - Domestic consumption during the Spring Festival showed robust growth, with tourism and consumer goods benefiting from policy support, while industrial production also picked up post-holiday [21][22]. Real Estate Market - The new housing market remains weak, but the second-hand housing market shows resilience, with sales in major cities recovering faster than new home sales [22][23]. - The report emphasizes the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and implementing supportive policies to mitigate declines [22][23]. Policy Focus - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to reinforce the central economic meeting's priorities, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand and supporting technological innovation [21][23]. - Fiscal policy is projected to remain proactive, with an expected increase in fiscal spending and a target deficit rate of 5.6% of GDP for 2025 [24][23]. Currency and Capital Flows - The report predicts a modest appreciation of the renminbi as economic fundamentals improve, despite ongoing political risks between the US and China [9][24]. - Capital inflows into emerging markets, particularly in China, are expected to continue, supported by favorable economic policies and a recovering economic environment [9][21].