NIFD季报：全球金融市场：经济回升、外部环境变化与政策支持

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable recovery in 2025, with GDP growth projected at around 4.9% [4][40] - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand in the face of increasing external uncertainties, particularly due to rising international trade protectionism [4][23] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to see a slight increase, driven by infrastructure investment and a modest recovery in real estate investment [38] Summary by Sections 1. Review of China's Economic Performance in 2024 - China's GDP reached approximately 135 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.0% year-on-year [8] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.2% [9] - The unemployment rate in urban areas averaged 5.1%, with 12.56 million new jobs created [9][10] 2. External Environment and Issues for 2025 - The report discusses the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on China's exports, predicting a decrease in net export contributions to economic growth [23][24] - It notes that the divergence in monetary policies among developed countries may increase pressure on China's economic balance [25] 3. Expected Economic Trends and Policy Discussion for 2025 - Manufacturing investment is expected to decline slightly, while infrastructure investment may accelerate [38] - The report emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to support economic recovery [30][42] - The anticipated CPI trend for 2025 suggests a gradual increase after a low in February, while PPI is expected to decline by around 2% [41]