全球大类资产周观点（46）：对全球资产震荡的理解-2025-03-03

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: Trump's tariff path, changes in global AI narratives, and recent warm high-frequency data related to export and policy discussions in China [1] - The report suggests that the asset pricing for 2025 should not underestimate the intensity of tariff negotiations, pay attention to the implications of AI on US assets and its influence on Chinese technology, and recognize that current high-frequency data does not signal a turning point for domestic demand in 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - Commodities generally weakened, with gold ending an eight-week winning streak, US stocks declining, and Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the TMT sector, experiencing significant drops [2] - The A-share market saw a notable pullback, especially in the technology sector, with declines of 9.62% in telecommunications, 8.06% in media, and 8.01% in computing [2][12] Macroeconomic Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to ongoing net injections by the central bank and intensified tariff measures from Trump, leading to a tight balance in the funding environment [4] - The US stock market faced heightened volatility, primarily driven by AI technology fluctuations and deepening tariff disruptions, resulting in significant declines in risk assets like Bitcoin and US stocks [5] High-Frequency Data - Post-Spring Festival, industrial production is actively resuming, with February PMI showing a notable rebound, attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and previous early holidays [7] - Economic highlights include stronger production elasticity in the mid-to-lower manufacturing sectors and robust consumer demand, likely supported by policies encouraging trade-in programs [7] Domestic Policy Review - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation, aiming to stabilize the real estate and stock markets [8][66] - The National Energy Administration is working on policies to address the competitive issues in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, indicating ongoing efforts to optimize supply-side dynamics [8][67] Market Liquidity Observations - The central bank conducted significant reverse repos and MLF operations, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 433.1 billion yuan for the week, with interbank rates showing slight increases [49] - The A-share market's liquidity improved, with average daily trading volume approaching 20 trillion yuan [54] Major Events and Policies - The report highlights the expansion of tariffs by the US, with plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which is expected to impact trade dynamics significantly [60][61] - In Japan, CPI figures fell short of expectations, indicating potential caution from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate adjustments [62] Commodity Market Overview - Commodity prices faced downward pressure, with gold prices declining due to easing geopolitical risks and profit-taking by investors [26][27] - Oil prices dropped as a result of tariff threats impacting demand expectations, compounded by the resumption of oil exports from Iraq [28][29]